The Azzurri end a tournament that started with Nessun Dorma and ended with Andrea Bocelli and Italy at Wembley, fitting indeed.
In the group stage, Italy held Spain to penalties in the knockout stage despite being pushed hard in the match.
However, England’s first-round performance was quite ordinary, but it got to the semi-final without conceding before beating Denmark.
In the final on Sunday, who stands to win?
Based on Opta data, Stats Perform’s AI team created the Euros Prediction, identifying Italy and England as the most likely semi-finalists. A forecast of the decider is now being attempted.
Based on historical and recent team performances, this model estimates the probability of the outcome (win or loss).
Each of the 40,000 possible outcomes of the final be analysed, providing a percentage for the two finalists, indicating the likelihood of them lifting the trophy this weekend…
England (35.0 per cent)
As hosts, there will be no shortage of expectations after England reached a major final for only the second time in 55 years, ending their wait for a final appearance in the Euros or World Cup after the 1966 World Cup.
Following 37 matches in the competition, the Three Lions are enjoying their first Euros final. There has never been a team that has missed the finals for this long.
Despite their inexperience, the model favors the Azzurri in their match against Italy, as it did in the last four.
While England faced adversity against Denmark, their run of 725 unanswered minutes ended when Mikkel Damsgaard’s free-kick ended Jordan Pickford’s record run.
Pitchmark set by Gordon Banks in June and July 1966 was just passed by Pickford.
The match changed on the back of an own goal by Simon Kjaer and a Harry Kane rebound in extra time – after Kasper Schmeichel saved Kane’s penalty – as the first time in European Championship history England won.
England most recently overturned a deficit by winning 3-2 against Cameroon at the 1990 World Cup.
In the event of a record-breaking sixth clean sheet in a single season, Pickford would obviously prefer to avoid such drama…
Italy (65.0 per cent)
At Euro 2020 and the 1982, 1934, and 2006 World Cups, Italy is the only team to have scored 12 goals in a major tournament. During their previous three campaigns, they were champions every time.
During the last five European Championships, only two teams have had five players score at least two goals. Italy is the second such team after France in 2000.
Among the players who have scored more than once are Federico Chiesa, Matteo Pessina, Lorenzo Insigne, Ciro Immobile, and Manuel Locatelli.
It’s unlikely Italy can beat the Three Lions, but the country has engaged in more Euros and World Cups shootouts than any other nation – their 10 are tied with semi-final opponents Spain’s 10.
Having been forced into extra time on nine occasions during the Euros, the Azzurri are the outright leaders.
With this being Italy’s 10th major tournament (six World Cups, four Euros), that final experience England lacks is certainly evident in their history. Europe’s only nation to have played more such finals (14) is Germany.
A further outing at Wembley would put Leonardo Bonucci above Gianluigi Buffon for the Azzurri and Euro 2012.
It will be Chiellini’s 18th appearance and he is determined to raise the trophy to his defensive colleague on Sunday.